Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of LTclub centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman




  • 50 60 is bs cuz chances are it’s never gonna be 50 50

    Kaden DoernerKaden DoernerPrieš val
  • 7

    Andrew GalindoAndrew GalindoPrieš val
  • 0:55 *And thats why the reason your grandfather never wants to do anything related to science..*

    Raj PRaj PPrieš 2 val
  • Everyone says matpat didn't give answers. He did, he's just being unbiased and analytical. After all, no one knows the truth except for Dream. We can't just judge someone based on pure speculation. The rng evidence is nowhere close to be a solid proof. The 1.16 world record is heavily rng involved as well, indeed lots of them also look too lucky to me, but of course people love to chose to attack a celebrity instead. That being said, just stop involve yourself into stupid drama and controversies. All these accusations and criticisms are dumb.

    A FOA FOPrieš 5 val
    • There is not reasonable way for dream to have gotten that luck outside of cheating. The top runs are all lucky but dreams luck is an entirely different magnitude. If the entire world started speedrunning it would take millions of years for anyone to get this lucky. There is no way you can understand the numbers and not think dream cheated.

      morbideddiemorbideddiePrieš 3 val
  • So.... am I one of the only people that actually enjoyed this video? Like, I feel like he has a point about the lottery nature of the newest Minecraft Update and the Barter System specifically. (Though I've heard that people have actually found a way to control it now?). As well as how different assumptions and different decisions made in regards to data points of statistical analysis can greatly change the numbers involved? Looking at the comments, it sure feels that way.

    dolphinsniperdolphinsniperPrieš 6 val
  • No he did not fake it

    Bradyn RexBradyn RexPrieš 8 val
  • Can we all agree that the dislikes are from Dream stans?

    GooseSauseGooseSausePrieš 9 val
  • “Ive probably put more lore into Minecraft than Mojang has” Well yes, but actually yes

    TheLuchaKabutoTheLuchaKabutoPrieš 12 val
  • Monke

    No Sleep JonesNo Sleep JonesPrieš 14 val
  • I need my 23:30 minutes back please

    BruhBruhPrieš 15 val
  • You missed an opportunity to use the dream speed run music for this video.

    Yisrael BrowneYisrael BrownePrieš 16 val
  • "Man, I want to capitalize on the Dream drama, but jeez, I don't want to offend my friend and source of stream revenue Dream, so I'll dance around the issue for twenty minutes and then condemn speedrunning in general without giving a definitive statement." You're a transparent hypocrite, MatPat. I just hope that people stop seeing *through* you, and starting seeing *into* you.

    Varg KelanVarg KelanPrieš 18 val
  • I trust Dream yes he cheated but i think he so good a Man (I'm not a side account of Dream) :)

    Gapple ManGapple ManPrieš 21 val
  • Plenty of speedrun games feature randomness at a high level, whether it stems from physics interactions, AI behaviors or something else. As a result, speedrunners spend ridiculous amounts of time running the level over and over, not necessarily to improve their skill, but simply to get that lucky constellation of circumstances. Since speedrunners at the top level all have roughly the same skill, the one that gets lucky ON TOP OF THAT will be the one with the record, forcing all players to grind for that bit of luck. This applies to Minecraft as well. The Piglin bartering might seem like just a slot machine, but there are other factors like where the End Portal spawns or where you come up when coming back from the Nether, etc. Yes, you can mitigate these to some degree with player skill, but if the world record is a similarly skilled player AND they get lucky (because they've been trying over and over), they're going to get a better time.

    MarconiusMarconiusPrieš 22 val
  • I saw mr beast in the background lol

    fasthi300fasthi300Prieš 23 val
  • (I got the Latex ref, good times.)

    Bastien ClarkeBastien ClarkePrieš dieną
  • I think dream cheated his speedrun

    Moon WorxMoon WorxPrieš dieną
  • Short answer: Yes

    PerroPerroPrieš dieną
  • 7

    Muffin ThugMuffin ThugPrieš dieną
  • Dream became famous over night. He made a couple videos, and then boom. 20 million subscribers in a year and a half. It's not like cheating is gonna do anything to his ad revenue.

    DJBatmanGoldDJBatmanGoldPrieš dieną
  • Me beast😂😂😂😂

    Lucid Son4rLucid Son4rPrieš dieną
  • animemusic

    Hsueh-Chen wuHsueh-Chen wuPrieš dieną
  • Pov: your a dream fan

    Diamond TDDDylanDiamond TDDDylanPrieš dieną
  • Dreams about teeth if you do he'd be on top of the leaderboard

    Selina HouslaySelina HouslayPrieš dieną
    • Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfirePrieš dieną
  • 1:40 Is that a starcraft broodwar marine assultrifle?

    Arszlan Kendi-SzakacsArszlan Kendi-SzakacsPrieš dieną

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfirePrieš dieną
  • Matpat knows more math than many of those "math professors" that gave their answer

    SITO11MAXISITO11MAXIPrieš dieną
    • @SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math.

      LeonardLeonardPrieš 6 val
    • @Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants

      SITO11MAXISITO11MAXIPrieš 8 val
    • There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.

      LeonardLeonardPrieš 11 val
  • Wtf happened in this video

    JauJauJauJauPrieš 2 dienas
  • Yes, Dream cheated.

    ljummingenljummingenPrieš 2 dienas
  • Matpat I have been watching you since the start of the FNAF theories it would be a DREAM if you could respond.

    PASTAMAN 87PASTAMAN 87Prieš 2 dienas
  • Ооо повезло повезло

    Томат ОгородовТомат ОгородовPrieš 2 dienas
  • Are you Theodd1sout

    Julie DombroskiJulie DombroskiPrieš 2 dienas
  • trash

    Rafael BeldaRafael BeldaPrieš 2 dienas
    • @Sun-Moon-Dragon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

      Rafael BeldaRafael BeldaPrieš dieną
    • nobody cares

      Sun-Moon-DragonSun-Moon-DragonPrieš dieną
  • I mean showing his work kinda means he’s honest? I’m really not sure and am super late to that thing but I’m neutral

    xX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXxxX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXxPrieš 2 dienas
  • Honestly, you dont seem to understand speedruns. Its a hobby for most. They do it for fun. They like the luck. You pass it off as the lottery, but I could get the perfect seed and get last place.

    GrievousGrievousPrieš 2 dienas
  • For those who want the answer: He doesn’t give a answer

    ReelVonicReelVonicPrieš 2 dienas
    • FOr htose who want the answer he cheated

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfirePrieš dieną
    • I could of just read the top comment but ok

      GrievousGrievousPrieš 2 dienas
  • 0:14 "today I am gonna but EVERYTHING in a store including MatPat and whoever this guy

    Cookies RevolutionCookies RevolutionPrieš 2 dienas
  • MatPat should have known from Undertale not to undertake such a controversial topic. The reason there's a controversy is because the gray area is shunted into a society that only sees things in black and white. He couldn't give an answer because there is none. Luck is in so many shades of gray the novel was split into 8 sequels, it is indifferent. There is no "Dream did or did not cheat." We will never know unless he comes clean, but if he is telling the truth and he did not, people still won't believe him because his response will remain the exact same as it is now, and see where the current answer got him.

    BittersweetBittersweetPrieš 2 dienas
  • so did mattpat do the usual "The subject has been resolved already, and i will contribute nothing to it but will make a 20 video out of it to get add revenue"?

    BronyGamerBronyGamerPrieš 2 dienas
  • This video really doesn't get enough flak.

    Marsted RMarsted RPrieš 2 dienas
  • Ok but matpat where is the answer? I cant help but feel he may not have cheated but u promised an answer and u didnt give one... Tf

    Revolutionary Cinema ProductionsRevolutionary Cinema ProductionsPrieš 3 dienas
  • Stop this conclusion things, I give you an idea to know wether this guy is cheating or not. JUST WATCH THEM PERSONALY

    Kobe Noah RochaKobe Noah RochaPrieš 3 dienas
  • In the Super Mario tennis game. It is sibling rivalry.

    lucky 81lucky 81Prieš 3 dienas
  • I just understand the binomial distribution stuff but the other stuff is harder

    ꧁Iron III oxide꧂꧁Iron III oxide꧂Prieš 3 dienas
  • 0:52 Only people who are dumb feel the pain💀🤚

    S u g a r C h e r r iS u g a r C h e r r iPrieš 3 dienas
  • Yes he cheated, it is statistically impossible for his runs to happen. You can still watch Dream, it’s not like all he does is speed runs

    NotToo StraightNotToo StraightPrieš 3 dienas
  • Wow, this is such a great first impression on a channel! Nonsensical rambling, almost zero actual research or explanation on the situation and on top of that, you do your best to make a pro dream video while denying it's a pro dream video. At least be a man and admit it.

    Kleber SousaKleber SousaPrieš 3 dienas
  • "If you've ever tried to use word... It DoN't WoRk!" Me: "Uhhh? Insert tab then symbol?"

    Octavia OsbornOctavia OsbornPrieš 3 dienas
  • Dream hat nicht geschummelt nicht

    Richard RungeRichard RungePrieš 3 dienas
  • I just remembered big vibe block Fossils existed, does anyone know what they came from?

    Q u e e n i e C a r t o o nQ u e e n i e C a r t o o nPrieš 3 dienas
  • Pathetic apologia for a cheater. Extremely disappointing.

    Justin ZJustin ZPrieš 3 dienas
  • Edication

    Freddie FlandersFreddie FlandersPrieš 3 dienas
  • You are everything I hate

    L Train45L Train45Prieš 3 dienas
  • This is the Game Theorist channel that everyone always talks about? So they just trash things they don't understand and waste a lot of time trying to be funny while saying nothing real? You literally said "Are we sure that [Minecraft] should have a speedrun board in the first place?", what the hell are you talking about? Of course they should, all games get to have one and Minecraft is like the most popular game ever. Just because you personally don't think luck-based runs are fun to speedrun doesn't mean it's they're not fun to speedrun and shouldn't exist. What a dumb video. Apparently I missed out on nothing important by not watching this channel as a kid.

    Squiggs 【Glitches - ROM Hacks - Speedruns】Squiggs 【Glitches - ROM Hacks - Speedruns】Prieš 3 dienas
    • Yeah; I used to watch Game Theory, but I recently unsubbed because it's just butchering drama where they don't need to be; not to mention the obnoxious amounts of clickbait.

      LeonardLeonardPrieš 11 val
    • People already found a way around this without removing Piglins. Just switch quadrants and a bastion with enough gold should spawn. Matpat’s conclusion is to change the rules because he did not try to find a solution. What a shitty video.

      Drjones_1968Drjones_1968Prieš 3 dienas
  • Just letting you know he wouldn’t hide his answer like this if he didn’t think his friend cheated

    AlexAlexPrieš 3 dienas
    • thats what happened with all of dreams friends. in the tweets where dream defended his run, his friends always replied with something like 'yeah u cant do this sort of stuff'. but once allegations slowly turned to reality, those comments stopped coming

      Divyansh AggarwalDivyansh AggarwalPrieš 2 dienas
  • I remember one time in a lesson in school taking about statistics the teacher mentioned the whole flipping a coins 10 times and getting heads 10 times in a row, so I started flipping a coin and much to my dismay I got 9 heads in a row. I will never forget my disappointment

    Jim RyanJim RyanPrieš 3 dienas
  • 0:14 da frik?

    RiderLPIRiderLPIPrieš 3 dienas
  • 60+ Heads

    Zuwaria SarafineZuwaria SarafinePrieš 3 dienas
  • Scripted or real still awesome

    Fryzzle the PorkFryzzle the PorkPrieš 3 dienas
  • No

    Joushua OllivierreJoushua OllivierrePrieš 3 dienas
    • Either provide evidence or go away Stan

      BirbBirbPrieš 3 dienas
  • I'm happy that even after all these years, Matpat still is raking in millions.

    DexPeelDexPeelPrieš 3 dienas
  • flipping a coin 10 times and getting 7 heads

    Tyumer SyuleymanTyumer SyuleymanPrieš 3 dienas
  • Lol dream never cheated

    Dr. Fatema Akter DolyDr. Fatema Akter DolyPrieš 3 dienas
    • 1 in 7.49999 trillion isn't suspicious to you

      BirbBirbPrieš 3 dienas
  • The historical cheek recurrently dislike because copper frustratingly record at a flagrant flower. eager, impartial environment

    Joseph FinleyJoseph FinleyPrieš 3 dienas
  • i just got into high school in australia and i love physics

    NoobMaster1278NoobMaster1278Prieš 3 dienas
  • Matpat I have a theory about on Final fantasy 7 They can't used the phoenix down Because it's in the game not on the real story and the phoenix they can't use it maybe it's just a replica of phoenix and they can't revive aerith Or maybe the phoenix is just a clone Or in a stone that make the phoenix Power weaker or maybe the phoenix doesn't wanna revive anyone because the phoenix imprisonment

    Sans HanaragiSans HanaragiPrieš 3 dienas
    • On the stone Watch the final fantasy movie Search (Advent children) This is the movie of it watch it matpat

      Sans HanaragiSans HanaragiPrieš 3 dienas
  • For people wanting to get an actual ANSWER about this, go check out Stand Up Math's video about Dream.

    Gaming GeckosGaming GeckosPrieš 4 dienas
  • This man really spend over 20 minutes dancing around the actual answer and changing the topic, huh?

    Gaming GeckosGaming GeckosPrieš 4 dienas
  • The applejacks and Froot Loops 😂

    F1r3r3dF1r3r3dPrieš 4 dienas
  • Unrelated but do think matpat really understands bhoping because I think that if he doesn't that's really funny but doesn't matter.

    Declan RossDeclan RossPrieš 4 dienas
  • People who want the pop quiz answer: It's the left one :)

    kamal khandujakamal khandujaPrieš 4 dienas
  • Ffs matpat you don't even answer it properly and all you do nowadays is drag in viewers. ESPECIALLY with the 'undertale 2' instance, Toby Fox had to tell you that you were wrong. Used to watch you all the time man, but things changed.

    OurShadowOurShadowPrieš 4 dienas
  • Great work! I really appreciate you teaching us new things ☺️, I am 13 and this is my favourite channel, and you bring new motivation to learn and don't give up learning, when you're teacher's kinda suck...

    Antonie RežnáAntonie RežnáPrieš 4 dienas
  • 100

    bruh7bruh7Prieš 4 dienas
  • I watch these videos and get straight A's Thanks mr fun teacherman

    Alvin AlfieAlvin AlfiePrieš 4 dienas
  • My teacher used this video as a review on statistics, i love Mat Pat

    Richie \Richie \Prieš 4 dienas
  • It’s kinda silly now that I know that he didn’t fake his speed run like now a days mat just jumps on the newest trends ( like hating on dream ) without doing anything math.

    • Did you do the math? Btw, the verdict has already been passed.. so, no need to worry. Dream cheated.

      Kal wardinKal wardinPrieš 2 dienas
    • You know Dream still cheated right? His rebuttal was disproven.

      Jonah ClementsJonah ClementsPrieš 3 dienas
  • Sorry but I’ll always hate dream for endorsing the flow squid

    BlukesterBlukesterPrieš 4 dienas
  • F-

    Johnwel EncisoJohnwel EncisoPrieš 4 dienas
  • 3:26 Very Common Meme

    Kataklysymuka GanimosikaKataklysymuka GanimosikaPrieš 4 dienas
  • Matpat’s IQ to me : 219

    Kataklysymuka GanimosikaKataklysymuka GanimosikaPrieš 4 dienas
  • 60/100

    Jumpy AnimationsJumpy AnimationsPrieš 4 dienas
  • matpat new minecraft theory suggestion: soul sand because i think it's the key on the other theories or the missing piece on the lore

    John David San luisJohn David San luisPrieš 4 dienas
  • All of these people complaining about how he didn’t actually give an answer obviously didn’t pay attention. He made it very clear that there is no way to actually clear cut say he did or didn’t cheat. It’s like a crime investigation. You can present a lot of evidence, but that doesn’t guarantee that they actually did or didn’t do it. There will always be probable loop holes and ideas that challenge your evidence. There is always a possibility that you are wrong. He didn’t want to give us an answer that could be wrong because no one can say that there is no way he didn’t cheat, but they can’t say he did.

    Sorceress FireSorceress FirePrieš 4 dienas
    • The way the game is coded doesn't account for the luck that Dream got. RNG is random, but it's still a set coded function within the game, meaning that it won't spike in luck so consistenly like it did for Dream. There's no way the original settings of Minecraft can function in that way, unless modded. Karl Jobst did a video on this (I recommend watching it), and he ran millions of simulations on the original MC settings, and could not get even close to the amount of luck Dream got. It's so clearly evident he cheated and is lying about it. There comes a point where you need to believe the unlikeliness of the numbers, or you might as well throw out all systems that function heavily on the basis of stastistics, such as science, math, court systems, etc., because we can't assume anything is correct, by your logic.

      LeonardLeonardPrieš 10 val
    • @Jonah Clements Agreed, you have to draw the line. You wouldn’t be able to reasonably discredit most speedruns because they were theoretically possible in the RNG glitchless catergory.

      Drjones_1968Drjones_1968Prieš 3 dienas
    • With the statistics we are dealing with, if you don't accept the fact that Dream didn't cheat because "tHeRe's StiLl a cHaNcE hE DidN't cHeAt," you have to think literally everything that is ever said is true, since there is always a chance that it is.

      Jonah ClementsJonah ClementsPrieš 3 dienas
    • Yeah, but it’s still a shitty video. He said we should change the rules of Speedrunning instead of proper thinking or basic research. He should already know people found a solution to piglins in Speedrun through ingenuity instead of complaining about RNG. This was such a trainwreck of a video. Should’ve just ended it with no conclusion.

      Drjones_1968Drjones_1968Prieš 3 dienas
  • Mmm dream thint cheat cause that has happend Abit of times it happend yo me

    the gamer yepezthe gamer yepezPrieš 4 dienas
    • @Birb This isn’t Reddit, my guy.

      Drjones_1968Drjones_1968Prieš 3 dienas
    • R/Ihadastroke Also don't like your own comment

      BirbBirbPrieš 3 dienas
  • plot twist : Dream friend with Technoblade and piglin give more drop rate.

    AAPrieš 4 dienas
  • I don't know what to say...

    Milk StrawMilk StrawPrieš 4 dienas
  • 7 out of 10

    Kayson McLeodKayson McLeodPrieš 4 dienas
  • And there's film watching to because of film theory

    Kayson McLeodKayson McLeodPrieš 4 dienas
  • So why is there so much Austin lately

    Kayson McLeodKayson McLeodPrieš 4 dienas
  • i think we can all agree that dream suckts

    KnightKnightPrieš 5 dienų
    • @Frenchyboy I mean, we have to understand. The internet is not only for english speakers, and its hard to write on a phone. Also, the person writing this, but a youtube comment isnt what should define their intelligence. They spelled one thing wrong my guy.

      GrievousGrievousPrieš 2 dienas
    • @Birb thats not what I mean, I didnt say I did or didn't like him, I meant that not everyone will agree.

      FrenchyboyFrenchyboyPrieš 3 dienas
    • Well he cheated but his content is likeable to some people

      BirbBirbPrieš 3 dienas
    • Yikes, that shows how intelligent you are.

      FrenchyboyFrenchyboyPrieš 4 dienas
  • Role with the punchhs

    Chaos CasseroleChaos CasserolePrieš 5 dienų
  • MatPat didn’t give an answer but as a dream stan I can say the answer is yes, he did. There’s no way he seriously got THAT lucky. Dream is trying to BS his way out of it which is fine, but everything points to him cheating.

    Polite Gordon RamsayPolite Gordon RamsayPrieš 5 dienų
  • Old MatPat isn't cringey MatPat, Old MatPat is classic MatPat 😎

    Trevor TMTrevor TMPrieš 5 dienų
  • What software is your video created in? Adobe After Effects?

    ImperialImperialPrieš 5 dienų
  • I just wanna know how many runs happen in between those 6 play through some. Like out of all the runs he had in between those 6 had that luck. I can believe that?

    Marvin AndersonMarvin AndersonPrieš 5 dienų
    • I think it amounted to like ~200 runs or something, so like maybe ~33 per stream, all with this consistent luck. There's no way he could get luck like that normally.

      LeonardLeonardPrieš 10 val
  • Your roooooooouuuuuuuuuuuud 😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠

    Penny TPenny TPrieš 5 dienų
  • 10:13 Yay Freddy Plushie!

    Brendan JohnsonBrendan JohnsonPrieš 5 dienų

    Muffin HeadMuffin HeadPrieš 5 dienų
  • 7

    Gamers UniteGamers UnitePrieš 5 dienų
  • I know dream lied cuz there is a person that is playing for him he said

    Adam NaserAdam NaserPrieš 5 dienų